Skip to main content

The week in commodities

Just wanted to run down some recent interesting news concerning commodities and related investments. Here's what we've got:

Oil

Prices have been edging higher lately, back up towards the $75 mark. Frederic Lassare of Societe Generale says that with another hurricane season around the corner, oil prices are poised to set a new record. This, combined with global tensions/risks "will send crude through $80 a barrel toward our technical target of $83".

Meanwhile, Rosneft prepares for its upcoming IPO and recent reports claim the issue is now oversubscribed. India's state-run ONGC Videsh is considering a $3 billion investment in Rosneft, giving it a 4.5-5 percent stake, according to a recent report at India eNews.com.

Many of the leading oil & gas firms have been considering an investment in Rosneft, but it is the Asians who seem most eager to buy in, despite the risk. China and India are clearly trying to step up their efforts to lock in their "energy security" needs and secure what's left of the dwindling fossil-fuel resources worldwide.

Uranium

U308 Speculation. A uranium owning trust is looking to go public in London later this month, according to a recent report in the Financial Times. Nufcor Uranium plans to raise $120 million in a float on the AIM and buy physical uranium with some of the proceeds.

You can read more at the Guardian under the heading, "Going Nuclear". The article doesn't mention it, but there is already a similar uranium proxy listed on the Toronto Exchange. It's named Uranium Participation Corp. and trades under the symbol U.TO.

Agriculture and Biofuels

Also seen in the Financial Times: "Use of crops for fuel production helps trading volumes soar". Open interest in Dec 08 corn contract (CBOT) has increased from 409 at the start of the year to about 35,000 at present. A lot of people latching on to the crops as fuel story, first with sugar in Brazil and now corn here in America.

I'm not sure how long this enthusiasm will last however, as more people are waking up to the fact that corn-based ethanol is not all it's cracked up to be. From my understanding, corn ethanol production is an energy-losing process and an inefficient choice from an economic standpoint, as well.

While corn based ethanol is the politically appealing option at the moment (corn farmers and producers benefit, while Americans believe they are supporting farmers in the Midwest rather than oil-shieks in the Middle East), some believe that successful commercialization of cellulose ethanol would create a more efficient source of energy. Here's a recent look at the ethanol debate from WSJ.com.

Popular posts from this blog

Seth Klarman: Margin of Safety (pdf)

Welcome, readers! Signup for free email updates at the Finance Trends Newsletter . Update: PDF links removed due to DMCA notice. Please see our extensive Klarman book notes below. New visitors, please check the Finance Trends home page for all new posts. Here's something for anyone who has been trying to get a look at Seth Klarman's now famous, and out of print, 1991 investment book, Margin of Safety .  My knowledge of value investing is pretty much limited to what I've read in Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor (the book which originally popularized the investment concept of a "Margin of Safety"), so check out the wisdom from Seth Klarman and other investing greats in our related posts below. You can also go straight to Ronald Redfield's Margin of Safety book notes .    Related posts: 1. Seth Klarman interviews and Margin of Safety notes     2. Seth Klarman: Lessons from 2008 3. Investing Lessons from Sir John Templeton 4.

Slate profiles Victor Niederhoffer

Slate's recent profile of writer/speculator, Vic Niederhoffer has been getting some attention from traders and finance types in recent days. I thought we'd take a look at it here too, to offer up some possible educational value from Vic's experiences with trading and loss. Here's an excerpt from Slate's profile of Victor Niederhoffer : " I've enjoyed getting your e-mails. It sounds like you've thought a lot about being wrong. Well, the reason you contacted me, to call a spade a spade, is that I'm sort of infamous for having made a big, notorious, terrible error not once but twice in my market career. Let's talk about those errors. The first was your investment in the Thai baht, which pretty much wiped you out when the Thai stock market crashed in 1997. I made so many errors there it's pathetic. I made one of my favorite errors: "The mouse with one hole is quickly cornered." That is key. There are certain decisions you make in li

William O'Neil Interview: How to Buy Winning Stocks

Investor's B usiness Daily founder and veteran stock trader, William O'Neil share d his trading methods and insights on buying winning stocks in an in-depth IBD radio interview. Here are some highlights from William O'Neil's interview with IBD: William O'Neil's interest in the stock market began when he started working as a young adult.  "I say many times that I didn't get that much out of college. I didn't have much interest in the stock market until I graduated from college. When I got married, I had to look out into the future and get more serious. The investment world had some appeal and that's when I started studying it. I became a stock broker after I got out of the Air Force."    He moved to Los Angeles and started work in a stock broker's office with twenty other guys. When their phone leads from ads didn't pan out, O'Neil would take the leads and drive down to visit the prospective customers in person.