Thursday, February 28, 2008

Expecting a dollar rally?

(EUR/USD chart courtesy of ForexRate.co.uk).

The dollar hit new lows against the Euro yesterday, and today.

Here's the latest update from RTTNEws:

Forex - Greenback Drops Further Against Majors [EUR/USD]

2/28/2008 12:23:15 PM The US dollar dropped further against its major counterparts at about 12:15 pm ET. As of now, it is trading near 1.5201 versus the euro, 1.0509 versus the franc, 1.9911 against the pound and 105.38 against the yen.

At this point, anyone who's been banking on an imminent dollar rally probably feels a bit like Linus waiting around for the Great Pumpkin on Halloween night.

Still, some well known investors, like Jim Rogers, are expecting a short term dollar rally at some point in the not-too-distant future.

Rogers told reporters at a Dublin investor conference that he expects the dollar to continue its long-term decline, but that he also expected an upcoming dollar rally, as current sentiment toward the currency was overwhelmingly bearish.

"There are so many people bearish on the dollar right now including me and normally when that happens something comes along to cause a rally even if it is a bear market," he said."

Nevertheless, Rogers held to his negative longer-term picture for the dollar, and said he would use any upcoming dollar rally as an opportunity to unload the rest of his dollar-denominated assets.

You can listen to Jim Rogers' comments in this Bloomberg audio clip.

Lately, we're hearing more and more about the dollar's diminishing status as the world's reserve currency. The dollar has been declining against most major currencies over the last several years, and most of those currencies have not been so great themselves, as rampant global inflation becomes evident even to casual observers.

It seems more people are slowly waking up to the fact that it's not just the US dollar that's in trouble, it's the global system based on fiat currency and debt.