Thursday, September 18, 2008

Jim Rogers, Marc Faber on CNBC-TV18

We bring you two recent video clips from the CNBC-TV18 channel in India, featuring investors Jim Rogers and Marc Faber.

In the first clip, Jim Rogers tells CNBC-TV18 that he is still bullish on gold and agricultural commodities, despite the recent sharp correction in most commodity markets.

Jim thinks commodity prices will be higher in the next decade. For now, he says we are in a recession and will likely see lower commodity prices for the near-term.

Rogers is still bearish on the dollar's long-term prospects, and he hopes to use the recent rally as an opportunity to sell the dollar in the near future. He is bullish on the yen, renminbi, and Swiss francs, which he has been buying.

Marc Faber also spoke with CNBC-TV18 last week. He offered the view that contracting liquidity worldwide had a varied effect on the timing of asset price declines, with all major asset classes (stocks, commodities, currencies) eventually tumbling in a domino effect.

While he sees the possibility for countertrend rallies in commodities, Marc says "forget about new highs in commodities, it won't happen anytime soon". He feels the contraction in global liquidity will continue, and it may be a year or so before we see a recovery in asset markets.

Faber notes that a variety of asset classes (art, stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate) had moved up in concert since 2002, thanks to the great "Bernanke Bubble". The consequences of this unprecedented bubble will be felt for some time, because credit growth has decelerated sharply, which leads to falling asset prices and recession.

Marc agrees with Jim Rogers that commodities may generally be higher in the next decade, largely due to money printing by central banks. Competitive devaluations of currencies by the world's central banks will lead to near-zero interest rates and a highly inflationary global environment.

Marc also reiterates his view that most countries are experiencing slowing economic growth or negative growth rates, and he notes that many emerging share markets have already discounted slowing growth to some extent.

Still, he wonders if these stock markets have declined enough to reflect falling profits that are likely to come over the next several years. He feels that India's Sensex has likely seen its highs around the 20,000 mark, and will not eclipse that mark for years to come.

Interestingly, noted Indian stock bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala differs on this last point, telling CNBC-TV18 that the long-term Indian bull market is still alive, albeit in "interruption mode".

Though I am not a close follower of the Indian stock market, I seem to remember reading an account of Marc and Rakesh debating this very point last year, and at other times in the past.

Related articles and posts:

1. More interviews and posts with Jim Rogers and Marc Faber.

2. Stocks rally, Wall Street in "fantasyland".

3. Marc Faber shares insights on the economy and asset markets.

4. Rogers and Buffett disagree on bailouts.