As you can probably guess from the title, Tim has a rather definite bigger picture view of the markets and the economy. Let's just say that he's not convinced about the merits of the government's much heralded stimulus efforts.
Here's an excerpt from Tim's post:
"One of the nicest compliments I ever received was from Tom Sosnoff (the co-founder of thinkorswim) who told an audience, "the thing I like about Tim, as opposed to a lot of other technicians, is that he actually has an opinion."
That I do! Oftentimes I will read newsletters or speeches where technicians will carefully word things so that "either A is going to happen or B is going to happen". This way, no matter what direction the market goes, they are safe. ("As I predicted, "B is going to happen", and it has!)
I believe the historic levels of government intervention and interference in what used to be a free market is going to have disastrous consequences.
I believe that the United States government, in collusion with financial institutions that have very close ties to the government, has embraced short-term solutions that will create long-term pain. In short, I think the market is going to be in much worse shape in 2014 compared to 2009..."
Go check out the full post, along with Tim's comments on the possible future direction of the major averages, at the link above (hat tip to Bear Mountain Bull).
5 comments:
Tim does a great job on SOH, and he's got a nice little community of traders built up over there, though most of them are pretty short-term oriented, which doesn't fit my tastes. But it's not a bad place to visit.
Is he right on his 'big picture'? I have no idea...
I think Tim is great, for many of the same reasons you mentioned. Here is very open, honest, as well as entertaining and quite intelligent. I agree with many of his big picture views, and think the Fed is going to maintain an easy money policy in order to try to prevent deflation at all costs. As such, I think one of the few areas for investment that should benefit is gold related assets, as the gold price
should rise from a continued debasement of our currency by the govt.
@BMB It's amazing how some of those trading focused blogs just pull in a community of commenters. I've noticed that Tim's blog, Evil Speculator, and X Trends seem to have these vast comment threads.
I've been checking in with SOH a bit lately and I do find it an interesting place to visit. Thanks for the heads up on the big picture post.
@Mike Thanks, Mike. I think Tim is dead on when he says notes that the govt. has totally interfered w/ the workings of the market and that their short-term "solutions" will only create larger problems and imbalances over the longer-term.
Nice ost
Good blog
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