Skip to main content

Macro themes dominate the investing world

The rise of global macro investing and the increased importance of weighing macro themes in everyday investing were the subject of this recent Wall Street Journal piece entitled, "Macro Forces in Market Confound Stock Pickers" (Hat tip: Abnormal Returns).

An excerpt from that piece:

"
The market turmoil has battered many investors over the past few years. But for stock pickers like Neuberger Berman LLC's David Pedowitz, it has made their entire investing approach feel like an exercise in futility.

Mr. Pedowitz buys and sells stocks based on research and analysis of individual companies. His investment strategy, he says, has been upended by a tidal wave of "macro" forces—big-picture market movers like the economy, politics and regulation.

More and more investors aren't bothering to pore through corporate reports searching for gems and duds, but are trading big buckets of stocks, bonds and commodities based mainly on macro concerns. As a result, all kinds of stocks—good as well as bad—are moving more in lock step.

"It's unbelievably frustrating," says Mr. Pedowitz, who helps manage $4.5 billion for wealthy clients and has 25 years of investing experience. "It's enough to make you crazy."

That kind of talk has become widespread on Wall Street as stock pickers discover that long-held investment strategies are no longer working very well..."

Note that Gregory Zuckerman, author of The Greatest Trade Ever, is a co-writer of this article. Which makes sense, given that the main subject of his book, John Paulson, was a convertible arbitrage trader turned macro-focused hedge fund manager who scored big with his now-famous subprime short trade.

Paulson's not the only one to embrace the macro approach; exhaustive researchers and value oriented stock pickers, David Einhorn and Michael Burry have also delved into macro investing in recent years with their subprime-related short trades and forays into gold, farmland, and commodities.

The authors of the WSJ piece note that in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, many investors woke up to the fact that a big picture theme or an "unexpected" storm can wreak havok on their investment returns. Now, they are starting to look more at big picture trends in the economic and geopolitical spheres, as they realize these events can greatly influence their performance.

Witness this quote from David Einhorn:

"For years I had believed that I didn't need to take a view on the market or the economy because I considered myself a 'bottom-up investor,'" said hedge-fund manager David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital last year. "The lesson that I have learned is that it isn't reasonable to be agnostic about the big picture."

There you have it. The big picture outlook has permeated the investment world. Is this a temporary vogue in favor of macro investing, or are we all, to some extent, global macro investors now?

Related articles and posts:

1. Michael Burry: an up & coming macro star? - Finance Trends.

2. Must hear interview with John Burbank of Passport Capital - Finance Trends.

Popular posts from this blog

Finance Trends 2019 Mid-Year Markets Review

Email subscribers of the Finance Trends Newsletter receive the first look at new articles and market updates, such as the following piece, sent out to our email list on Sunday (6/14).   Hello and welcome, everyone! If you received our last email notice over the July 4th holiday, you'll know that this weekend's newsletter will serve as a mid-year market update and a follow-up to issue #29, " How to Reinvest in a Rising Market ".   Ladies and gentlemen, without further ado, let's start the show...  Finance Trends Newsletter: Our Mid-Year Market Review When we last spoke, back in February, the U.S. stock market was rallying off its December-January lows. As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reclaimed their 200 day moving averages in February and March, it became increasingly apparent that a lot of retail investors (and perhaps some institutional investors) were left under-invested while watching this recovery move from the sidelines.  The U.S. stock ...

Round trip stocks: momentum booms and busts

" No tree grows to Heaven ." - Old proverb adopted by Wall Street. What happens to hot momentum stocks when their rocket fuel runs out? How long can they continue to fly before they come crashing back down to earth? Why is the stock that you paid $100 a share for now trading at $39? These are questions that many novice traders and investors may be struggling with in the wake of the most recent market correction. Momentum stocks have been hit hard as the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 indices have moved lower in recent weeks. Caught unaware by the recent slide, some traders may be wondering when their beaten-down stocks will snap back and allow them to exit with smaller losses (or even reach the mythical "break even" point).  While growth stocks still firmly within their uptrends may form constructive technical bases and move higher after this correction, others may experience sharper pullbacks or break down into full "stage 4" declines (see chart below...

How to "Pull the Trigger" on Your Trading Ideas

In our last post, I quoted hedge fund manager, Jim Leitner on the importance of following up on your investment ideas.  Today I'd like to follow up and share some thoughts on how you can learn to consistently "pull the trigger" on your best trading setups and investing ideas. In order to help you do that, we'll take from the best and offer up key insights from interviews with top traders and trading psychologists like Alan Farley, Brett Steenbarger, and Doug Hirschhorn .  Now before we get to their key insights on overcoming trading anxiety and pulling the trigger on your trading ideas, let's remember what Jim Leitner said in his interview: "Learn to love to listen to people and when you hear something interesting, follow up on it. Don't just think, "Well that's an interesting idea" only to find out a year later that the company you could've bought shares in is now up 500-fold. You never want to say woulda, coulda, shoulda...