Finance Trends Letter

Trader, author, and Market Wizard, Victor Sperandeo joins us for an exclusive interview in our first Finance Trends podcast. To say we caught a lucky break with our first guest is a bit of an understatement.  Victor is a highly regarded veteran trader who has been involved with the markets since his first job as a Wall Street quote boy back in 1966. When he began his independent trading career in 1971, his primary goal was to make money consistently, month after month, year after year.  After 40+ years of consistent profitability, I'd say he's met that goal.  Over the course of his career, Vic has traded independently, managed hedge funds and CTAs (commodity trading advisors), and ran portfolios for George Soros and Leon Cooperman. He has also written three books on trading, including, Trader Vic: Methods of a Wall Street Master , a personal favorite which interlaced Vic's trading insights with sections on Austrian economics and personal psychology! In this rare,...

Looking at a potential change in trend for CREE , maker of LED lighting products.  I've done up the chart in the manner of Vic Sperandeo's "1-2-3" trend change guide. As you can see, CREE has broken out above the trend line. The lowest low preceding the breakout provides a test floor or boundary and the previous minor rally high acts as the ceiling which CREE must break through to define the change in trend.  Right now we have a possible change in trend. If CREE tests that upper boundary and then breaks out above that previous high, we'll have a defined trend change and a new uptrend in place, according to Sperandeo's method.  Also, a recent break above a year-long downtrend line and a successful fill of a prior downward gap at the 37.60 level may be a sign of a positive trend for Dolby ( DLB ).  I have to say I'm not as familiar with the current fundamental picture on Dolby. Of course, they are a leader in film sound technology and surrou...

Victor Sperandeo makes 5 "Frightening Market Predictions" , as well as a few policy prescriptions for the USA in this Real Clear Markets piece. Here's a taste:  "... 1. The U.S. is going into recession. This is being entirely caused by the woefully misguided fiscal policies of the Obama administration. Their anti-business, socialist agenda is killing the "Golden Goose" (i.e. Capitalism). Raising the costs for small and big business via tax hikes, Obamacare, and massive regulation is in effect causing a capital "strike" by entrepreneurs. As a result, GDP is going to decline..."  Recession is not the only thing on Trader Vic's mind. Head on over for a few thoughts on gold, the future of the EU, hyperinflation, and the global bubble in debt.  Plus, a few key changes that may help the US fix its problems and change our course for the future (only wish Victor had some more time and space to really flesh these out). Check it out....

I've recently updated the Finance Trends "Classic Trading Books" collection on Scribd to include two personal favorites from Victor "Trader Vic" Sperandeo and Jack Schwager. You'll now find Sperandeo's, Trader Vic: Methods of a Wall Street Master , along with the first volume of Schwager's classic interview series, Market Wizards in the collection. You'll also find a widget embed code included, so feel free to grab it and paste it onto your site or your Facebook page. The widget will be updated automatically to show all newly added titles in the Trading Books collection. For those of you who'd like a hard copy or Kindle version of these classic texts, visit Amazon (see title links above) to order Sperandeo and Schwager's books. Enjoy!

"Trader Vic" Sperandeo is on CNBC describing the historical pattern for the onset of hyperinflation, and says the conditions for such a runaway inflation are now here in the US. We're getting more familiar with these types of extreme forecasts as our economy drifts into unchartered territory. It seems market watchers are almost growing accustomed to hearing predictions about a coming hyperinflation or a looming deflationary depression. Still, it should be noted that Sperandeo is a serious guy and a very serious researcher (my observations based on reading his work and listening to his interviews). His knowledge of economic history and the nature of money creation and business cycles is profound. So while the forecasted event is an extreme and rare event, don't dismiss Vic as "just another scaremonger". It is striking to note that while Vic is arguing his case for the likelihood of hyperinflation , in effect the spiralling collapse of a society and an econ...

Quick note: I was catching up with Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters last night, and Russell made prominent mention of the fact that the Dow Transports and Dow Industrials had both moved above their previous June highs, thereby signaling a bullish confirmation under Dow Theory . Prieur du Plessis at Investment Postcards has more to say about the Dow Theory bull market signal . Those who've followed this blog for some time know that your author is an interested follower of Richard Russell's newsletter and a student of Dow Theory, but certainly not an expert in this area. Excellent introductions to the subject of Dow Theory can be found in Victor Sperandeo's book, Methods of a Wall Street Master , and John Murphy's Technical Analysis . You may also wish to consult the original works of the Dow Theory pioneers (Hamilton, Rhea, etc.) listed in Russell's historical overview . Related articles and posts: 1. New bull market? - Tim Wood at Financial Sense. 2. Chart...

Famed Indian stock investor and trader Rakesh Jhunjhunwala recently sat down for an interview with FT.com's "View From the Markets" video series. I'm sure many of our Indian and Asian readers are familiar with Jhunjhunwala's career, but for those outside the region who may not know him, check the Wikipedia link above for a brief introduction to the man currently tagged as the "Warren Buffett of India". Those who are familiar with Rakesh's reputation as one of India's most prominent stock bulls (he has also played the short side with success) may be unsurprised to hear his view that the "mother of all bull markets" in Indian shares lies not too far ahead. Click on the interview link to find out why he feels Indian shares will be an attractive opportunity in the years to come. You can also find out more about Jhunjhunwala's investing and trading background in the following related articles and links below. I find it fascinat...

The global bear market in shares continues, as Bloomberg reports that nearly all of the countries in the MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index have entered bear market territory , as they define it. "All of the 23 developed nations in the MSCI World Index except for Canada have experienced bear-market plunges of 20 percent or more since September as credit losses surged and record commodity prices stoked inflation. Brazil last week became the 23rd out of 25 developing countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to enter a bear market. Only Jordan and Morocco avoided such slumps." Of course, Bloomberg, like almost everyone else these days, is using the 20 percent rule (a drop of 20 percent from the price high) as their threshold for determining bear markets. Of course, if you're using this arbitrary marker as a guideline, you're likely to find that you've already seen (and sat through) a substantial portion of the average bear market decline . So...