Finance Trends Letter

"I'd say 80% of my activity is engaged in the interpretation of social mood." - Hugh Hendry.   That quote taken from this September 2010 BBC Hardtalk interview with Hugh Hendry .  When asked about the need for regulatory control of financial markets and curtailing of risk, Hugh replies, "The best form of regulation is, 'If you mess things up, you fail.'" .   Hat tip : Kevin Kaiser at Hedgeye.

Russia Forum 2011 , which recently took place in Moscow, featured a global investing outlook panel discussion which included famed investors and commentators, Nassim Taleb, Marc Faber, and Hugh Hendry. Also on hand at the forum were economist, Nouriel Roubini, strategist, Russell Napier, and a panoply of international investors and business leaders. You'll find Roubini and Napier adding their thoughts in the outlook panel video above. There was also a rather interesting panel, featuring Faber and Taleb, entitled, "Is Russia the Best or Worst in BRIC?" . As you'll surmise from the title, it's a panel debate on the strengths and weaknesses of each of the large BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) nations, with added focus on host country, Russia. So is there a strong case for investment in Russia at this time? This conversation is worthwhile not only for the contributions from the aforementioned panel stars, but also due to the comments from other panelists and ...

Must watch video of a panel discussion with Marc Faber, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Michael Power, and others at The Russia Forum 2010 . As moderator, Marc Faber begins the discussion by asking the panel members how they would invest $100 million for the year ahead. A varied discussion on the global economy, geopolitics, inflation vs. deflation, risk, food and energy systems, and the rise of emerging markets ensues. Great macro discussion with seeds of investing ideas and global macro trades sprinkled throughout. Don't miss this one, and thanks to Jay at Marketfolly for highlighting this discussion .

John Mauldin highlights investor Hugh Hendry's November commentary in his latest "Outside the Box" column. Hugh covers a lot of ground in this missive (I'm still trying to finish the letter as I write this), with comments on the great inflation-fueled rallies in commodities and stocks, the state of the global economy, the state of the Japanese, Chinese, and US economies, and more. Here's the leadoff from Hendry's recent letter : " This month I will attempt to answer the entrance examination for the Chinese civil service. That is to say, I will attempt to tell you everything that I know. In doing so, I will argue that this year's rally in inflationary assets, from emerging stock markets to industrial commodities to the fall in the US dollar, could be a FAKE. Let me explain why... " Check the link above to read on for more. You can also view the November Ecletica Fund letter here on Scribd . See our related posts section for more interviews with ...

Here's some of the reading/viewing material currently on my radar. We've got news of that tricky Goldman Sachs code, warnings of a commercial real estate bust, oil speculation, John Meriwether's latest fund closure, macro views on commodities and the economy from Donald Coxe, and much more. 1. Links on the recent Goldman Sachs code fiasco from Bear Mountain Bull and The Big Picture . 2. "Commercial real estate is a time bomb" - Big Picture. 3. "Whose line (of credit) is it anyway?" - Doug Wakefield and Ben Hill on abuses in government and the banking sector. 4. Weekend links from Upsidetrader , a key member of the Stocktwits trading community. 5. "Why there should be more oil speculation, not less" . A viewpoint article from Time magazine of all places. I believe it was written by someone who understands the futures market, so it actually makes uncommon sense. Hat tip to Charles at Smoking Securities . 6. Some thoughts on monetizing real-ti...

BusinessWeek points us to Hugh Hendry's recent comments on AIG and the process by which supposedly "too big to fail" financial companies have become wards of the state: "To the average U.S. taxpayer, the math may not sound right: After pumping in about $150 billion of federal money (with another $30 billion to come ), American International Group posts a quarterly loss of almost $62 billion—the largest in history. And it will have access to $30 billion in new cash from Washington. American International Group is being broken up in exchange for getting yet get another lifeline from the government. The former insurance giant posted a staggering $61.7 billion loss for the fourth quarter (about $22.95 per diluted share). Now, AIG is putting what are considered to be its most valuable insurance assets—American International Assurance (AIA) and its Asian operations—under direct government control. Once the businesses are sold, taxpayers will reap the benefits. I was struc...

Lots to read and watch in our latest, "Features of the week" . 1. Zero interest rate world lies ahead as England, ECB cut rates. 2. Hugh Hendry spoke of drastic rate cuts on CNBC recently. 3. Jobs lost in 2008: 1.2 million . US unemployment continues to rise. 4. Oil prices have plunged, but another spike may be on the way. 5. Oil demand may decline next year , says Wood Mackenzie 6. Mushrooms and plant waste may hold key to energy crisis . 7. Art market rout - FT Lex. Art market rout persists - Bloomberg. 8. Twenty-something investors seem optimistic about market. 9. Why Obama's "green jobs" plan won't work. 10. Down and out in Beverly Hills: Rolexes, Picassos hit pawnshops . 11. It's a great time to start a business , says James Altucher. 12. An audio slideshow tour of the Googleplex . 13. The bailout : more changes, more questions. 14. Record wide credit spreads may be near peak : CreditSights. 15. Sir David Tweedie: fair value accounting not to...